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The bailout package was signed by Congress, but so far there is no actual plan to apply the cash to any open problem.  The bailout is not a bailout.  It is the collection of an emergency fund and emergency authorities to be given to the Treasury Secretary (who has delegated the $700 billion to his deputy).

Credit Disappearing

In the wake of no action by the government, credit is disappearing.  Sub prime mortgages and later many regular mortgages and home equity lines were the first to go.  Banks that had issued these loans, issued securities backed by these loans and bought or traded in securities from other banks that had issued these loans, rapidly lost their trust in the value of mortgages as an asset. Those banks basically don’t trust the numbers, and now won’t lend to other banks with possibly equally untrustworthy numbers, valuations and balance sheets.

After freezing credit on each other, banks then began to freeze credit on businesses like At&t and Caterpillar.  Simultaneously, major retailers around the country saw their credit lines for purchasing goods to sell during Christmas drop by 40%.  Auto dealers found that they couldn’t sell cars because banks had also frozen credit to car buyers (and now 1 in 5 auto dealers are likely to go bankrupt before next spring.)

College students went off to school this year, paid their tuition with student loan checks issued from major banks that are not in financial trouble, only to be notified several weeks into the semester that those banks had stopped payment on the checks as they ended their own private student loan programs.

What’s Next?  Cutting Up ALL Credit Cards

As we look at the trends, we see that all credit is disappearing across the board unless it is government backed. One of the few areas left is credit cards.  This is a profitable area for banks, but it is also one of the riskiest areas for banks, and banks don’t have the stomach for anything with a hint of risk.  This indicates that banks are going to cancel all those credit cards out there that far too many people in the United States rely on very heavily.

Americans have to prepare for the day when their credit lines will be dropped down to their existing balance and possibly closed or frozen all together.  Many people have already seen their interest rates skyrocket from 4% to 7% to 10% to 25%, and those are people with great credit and no late payment!  If banks can’t get financed, if the biggest companies in the world can’t get financed, if people can’t get a secured loan on a home or a car, its just a matter of time before people can’t get financed on unsecured credit cards. 

Once credit cards are killed off, many areas of the US economy start to break apart from online transactions by all those shopping sites from eBay to Amazon to online auto insurance quotes to identity confirmations based on credit cards to booking travel through major airlines.  We can’t go back to a cash system, because we just don’t have a lot of cash.  So we are going to have to find a different way.